By Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at ViaBTC
October 30, 2026
Binance Hack, Bitcoin Resilience, and Mining Pressure
Obviously the broader crypto market has turned bearish on the Binance hack, but I believe Binance can absorb the loss comfortably. In fact, Bitcoin has held up resiliently, dipping to as low as $76,500 before quickly rebounding to $78,500. For perspective, markets took only weeks to recover after the Bybit hack. According to the latest disclosures, the Binance incident involved approximately $6.3 billion in crypto assets, with roughly $3 billion frozen through cooperation with industry partners, including Tether and Circle. Most of the remaining assets are in BTC and ETH.
I don't expect the stolen BTC to add much selling pressure. Bitcoin addresses can't be frozen, but every coin is traceable on-chain, and Bitcoin has no mixer as deep or liquid as Tornado Cash. In effect, much of that BTC is likely to stay "locked," and it could take years to reach the market. ETH is a different story. It can be laundered far more easily through Tornado Cash, so I expect ongoing selling pressure and relative weakness in ETH.
Technically, BTC is still holding above both its 50-week and 200-week moving averages, and the market will be watching whether it can reclaim $80,000 soon. Overnight, Bitcoin's mining difficulty rose sharply for a second straight adjustment, following a 5.92% increase on October 16. That's a cumulative rise of about 11.81%. Miners are now caught in a double squeeze: rising difficulty and falling prices.
On October 30 at 03:14 (UTC+8), Bitcoin's mining difficulty increased by 5.54% at block height 973,728, rising from 140.58 T to 148.36 T, its highest level of 2026 and the fourth-largest positive adjustment of the year. Under a constant transaction fee assumption, the difficulty increase alone reduces expected BTC-denominated revenue per unit of hashrate by approximately 5.25%. Combined with the subsequent decline in BTC prices, modeled USD-denominated hashprice fell by approximately 9.6% to $32.90/PH/s/day.
Beyond sentiment, this incident once again highlights the security risks of centralized exchanges, and of the crypto market more broadly. Preliminary findings suggest the breach appears to stem from how transactions were signed instead of a smart contract exploit. Binance's initial investigation further indicates that a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop may have enabled unauthorized withdrawal transactions, with no evidence of wallet private key leakage reported so far.
The Fed's Hawkish Signals
Earlier this week, the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00% came as no surprise. The immediate reaction in crypto markets was relatively muted. What was surprising, however, was the 10–2 vote, particularly Governor Lisa Cook's dissent, given that she had never dissented before and was not traditionally viewed as a hawk.
With the Fed upgrading its assessment of economic growth from solid to strong, I think the Fed is buying time to preserve flexibility for further tightening. With that, I do expect another rate hike in December, followed by at least one additional hike in 2027.
AI Sell-Off and US Tech Earnings
Zooming out, US earnings are also in focus. Intel and Amazon both traded poorly after reporting, following Google and Meta, and together they've sparked another AI-driven sell-off. The market is fixated on free cash flow, but I would argue profits are what ultimately matter, and those remain very solid across the Mag 7.
*Disclaimer: This article reflects the author's market analysis and forward-looking views as of October 30, 2026, and does not constitute investment advice. Mining revenue figures are estimates based on specified assumptions, not guaranteed payouts.